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This week, the domestic spot aluminum price remained normal at the beginning of the week, and there was panic selling during the weekend affected by the futures market, with excess spot supply and less
downstream pick-ups.
Shanghai aluminum fell sharply again, fell below the previous low, and continued to maintain a wide range of decline
.
Lower support around
12800-13000.
This week, the domestic epidemic tends to be stable and improving, but global surprises began to spread and hit the capital market hard, and global risk assets plummeted
collectively.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, upstream aluminum plant production is proceeding steadily, aluminum ingot spot inventory will still remain accumulated, and the pressure of spot inventory may remain until mid-March
.
The follow-up situation needs to pay attention to the trend of the epidemic and pay attention to when production and operation will officially resume
.
In terms of inventory, as of this cycle, the accumulated spot explicit inventory + aluminum plant inventory exceeded 2.
5 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods exceeded 240,000 tons, and the supply pressure continued to increase
.
On the futures market, Shanghai aluminum fell easily, maintaining a large range of
declines.
At present, aluminum prices have fallen below the average cost of the industry, but the short-term supply and demand mismatch superimposed on the global unexpected spread, the market concentrated to release panic, do not blindly guess the bottom area, wait for aluminum prices to stop falling and then observe whether they can recover
.
Below the important pass around
12800-13000.
Next week's aluminum prices are expected to fall, for reference
only.
