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Today's Shanghai copper is running strongly, closing the Shanghai copper main 2209 contract at 62930, up 830, or 1.
34%, and the futures price rebounded to a nearly one-and-a-half-month high
.
Shanghai copper continues to strengthen as inflation concerns in the United States ease and market sentiment warms, although domestic and foreign inventories have recently rebounded
.
On the macro front, following the unexpected decline in the US CPI in July, the US PPI also fell unexpectedly in July, inflation concerns eased, the US dollar index ran weakly, the macro atmosphere was warm, and many colored varieties continued to strengthen
.
The latest US PPI m/m came in at 0.
5%, the first negative value since April 2020, largely reflecting lower energy costs and signaling easing inflationary pressures
.
This has also reduced the market's expectations for continued sharp Fed rate hikes in the future, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in September is still relatively higher
, even if there are relatively hawkish comments from Fed officials in the near future.
In terms of inventory, LME copper stocks increased by more than 5,000 tons yesterday, and Shanghai copper warehouse receipt inventories also stopped falling and rebounded
slightly.
And the data show that as of August 12, copper stocks in mainstream areas across the country decreased by 02,100 tons from Monday to 70,700 tons, but increased by 01,800 tons from last Friday, and the weekly inventory ended two consecutive weeks of decline slightly higher
.
On the demand side, cable consumption driven by infrastructure has gradually returned to normal levels, and the downward trend of household air conditioning production in August has changed significantly
.
Overseas demand is weakening
.
For downstream demand, domestic demand has fallen after rising prices, downstream sentiment is not good, spot premiums are lower again, but the price spread is still high in the next month
.
In the short term, copper prices maintain a strong volatile view
.
However, Fed officials are still hawkish, long-term liquidity tightening expectations remain unchanged, copper prices are squeezed above, and pressure levels are focused on 63500
.
