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Last week's ups and downs of the epidemic weakened risk appetite, the Fed's expectation of accelerating tapering of bond purchases increased, and the market was more worried; The landing of the RRR cut by the domestic central bank and the marginal improvement of financial data in November boosted copper prices in the short term, but with the deepening of the off-season, the marginal weakening of terminal demand, coupled with the continuous decline in spot premiums, copper prices fluctuated weakly
during the week.
On the macro front, the Omicron variant remains to be seen, but the impact of the epidemic on the market will remain for a long time, coupled with the hawkish turn of the Federal Reserve and mixed US data, the dollar index will remain strong
.
Considering that next week abroad is only 1 week away from the Christmas holiday, it is expected that some funds will withdraw from the market early, and the European and American stock markets will show certain pressure, and macro factors may put pressure
on non-ferrous metals including copper.
In terms of inventory, Shanghai copper inventory holdings continued to decline
last week.
London copper inventories recovered from a low level last week, with a cumulative increase of 3,700 metric tons to 77,925 metric tons, a cumulative increase of 4.
98%.
However, compared to December '20, London copper stocks are at historic
lows.
London copper stocks continue to fall, now less than 80,000 tons, in this case, it is expected that spot premiums will not have much room
to fall.
But in terms of absolute prices, as time goes on, the supply gradually recovers, the market will gradually turn to easing, although in the short term, the price is still difficult to break the shock range, but the balance is tilted
in favor of the bears.
In terms of fundamentals, copper mine imports increased significantly in the fourth quarter of the upstream, copper mine inventories continued to increase, and copper mine supply was relatively abundant, but the tight supply of cold materials still existed, coupled with the sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, refinery production pressure was still large, and there was no rush to production at the end of the year
.
In November, the domestic power rationing situation was relaxed, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises rebounded significantly, but near the end of the year-end demand off-season, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the sensitivity to copper price increases is high, mostly based on bargain hunting
.
Copper prices rebounded after the high shock downward during the week, the price is still around 70,000, the overall market does not have much bearish news, long and short intertwining is still the main keynote, but due to the weakening of the domestic consumption margin, spot premiums decline, even if there is disturbance on the supply side, copper inventories are at a low level, still showing a pattern of weak supply and demand, now waiting for the market to choose the direction, it is recommended to wait and see the operation as well
.
