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Aluminum prices have fallen significantly recently, mainly due to the rapid change in macro sentiment, last weekend due to the new crown virus mutation in the UK, countries banned flights from the UK, macro sentiment took a sharp turn, although domestic inventories continued to fall, while the Brexit agreement, the introduction of the US stimulus package and other positive factors, prices rebounded, but the overall center of gravity shifted
.
Midweek aluminum ingot inventories fell 0.
3 to 586,000 tons from last week, and the slight destocking situation continued, but the decline continued to narrow
.
In addition to seasonal factors, the environmental impact of Henan and the impact of power cuts in Zhejiang also affected demand, but the recent additional factors affecting consumption may fade, which will have an impact
on continued weaker consumption or short-term.
In terms of news, the General Administration of Customs announced that the import volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November was 189,000 tons, which continued to narrow month-on-month, and the net export volume was 235,000 tons, and the export trend maintained an upward recovery
.
On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continued to rise, slightly exceeding previous expectations from a new increase in December (nearly 400,000 tons), while the import window was still open and supply maintained an upward trend
.
Alumina prices continued to rebound mid-week, but the gains narrowed, and Guodian Zunyi started roasting this week, and supply in the southwest region increased
again.
The recent signing of long-term alumina orders is still in the game, and only some companies have reached an agreement, and the tug of war will continue for some time
.
The current environmental protection in the north is still in a strict situation, and it is difficult to recover the supply in the short term, so the situation of strong north and weak south continues to maintain, as for absolute prices, the cost of alumina production has also risen recently, so there is still room for upward, but the cost-driven rebound momentum is limited
.
Recently, the aluminum market has been greatly disturbed by macro, and the relative changes in vaccines and epidemics and stimulus policies continue to affect macro sentiment and influence the direction of
prices.
Fundamentally, the seasonal off-season is coming, superimposed on the growth trend of continuous release of supply, the margin of supply and demand tends to weaken, one of the important factors supporting aluminum prices will change, aluminum prices or turn to a phased decline
.
