The main upward trend of Shanghai copper encountered obstacles The downstream of the market is mainly wait-and-see

Market focus: (1) The Eurozone manufacturing PMI recorded 51.
1 in July, higher than the expected 50.
1, and the previous value was 47.
4, returning to above the boom-bust line, the highest level
in 25 months.
(2) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the U.
S.
$1 trillion relief bill will be introduced
this week.
(3) China's tenth batch of approved imports of copper scrap and scrap in 2020 was 10,110 tons, and a total of 728,610 tons
of scrap copper import quota was issued this year.

Spot analysis: On July 27, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51620-51820 yuan / ton, with an average price of 51720 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton
daily.
The downstream of the intraday market maintained rigid demand, still mainly wait-and-see, and the market trading was dominated
by trade speculators.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 58,618 tons, a daily decrease of 174 tons; On July 24, LME copper stocks were 141725 tons, down 2,075 tons per day, down 28 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended July 24, Shanghai copper stocks in the previous period were reported 157684 tons, down 963 tons
weekly.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 73911 lots, minus 1787 lots per day, short positions were 72635 lots, daily minus 1645 lots, net long positions were 1276 lots, daily minus 142 lots, long and short were reduced, net long and long decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On July 27, the upward movement of Shanghai copper 2009 was blocked
.
The closure of consulates between China and the United States has further intensified tensions between the two countries, raising concerns about the trade outlook; At the same time, domestic downstream demand is in the seasonal off-season, the operating rate of copper enterprises has declined, the market is afraid of heights, and copper prices lack upward momentum
.
However, macro policies remain accommodative and the economy is gradually recovering, and the dollar index continues to come under pressure; At the same time, the tight supply of upstream copper mines will continue, coupled with the low price of sulfuric acid, resulting in the suppression of domestic refined copper smelting production, and the recent decline in inventories in Shanghai and Lun markets has still supported copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the downstream of the intraday market maintained rigid demand, still mainly wait-and-see, and the market trading was dominated
by trade speculators.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract fell into a shock triangle convergence, mainstream bulls reduced their positions greatly, and short-term shock adjustment
is expected.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly in the range of 51000-52800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 300 yuan / ton
each.