The main upward trend of Shanghai aluminum has encountered obstacles, and downstream demand has weakened

Market focus: (1) The US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 47.
2 in December, less than the expected 49, which was the lowest
since June 2009.
(2) Iran announced that it would no longer abide by any restrictions
of the 2015 JCPOA.
(3) IAI data, China's aluminum production in November is expected to be 2.
88 million tons, down from 2.
98 million tons in October; China's alumina production in November was 5.
78 million mt, down
from 5.
97 million mt in October.

Spot analysis: On January 6, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14520-14560 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14540 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market circulation is relatively loose compared with last Friday, the shipment volume of holders has increased compared with last week, the middlemen are enthusiastic about receiving goods, the trading between the two sides is acceptable, and the purchase plan of large households on Monday has not been implemented
.
Downstream intraday receipts are general, and downstream orders weaken after entering January, and procurement enthusiasm is also affected
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 40,523 tons, an increase of 173 tons per day; On January 3, LME aluminum stocks were 1470925 tons, down 2,100 tons per day, down for 9 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 3, aluminum inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 188027 tons, a weekly increase of 2,900 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 64689 lots, minus 3354 lots, short positions were 81127 lots, daily minus 3253 lots, net short positions were 16438 lots, daily increase of 101 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On January 6, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 encountered obstruction
.
U.
S.
economic data performance is less than expected, the dollar index is under pressure, while the Middle East tensions escalate again caused oil prices to rise, energy prices led to higher production costs, coupled with China's electrolytic aluminum production decline, inventories are still at a historic low, strong support for aluminum prices, but the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, market risk aversion, and downstream demand has weakened, Shanghai aluminum inventories and spot inventories have rebounded slightly, still need to pay attention to inventory trends, slightly pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, the intraday market circulation source is relatively loose compared with last Friday, the shipment volume of holders has increased compared with last week, the middlemen are enthusiastic about receiving goods, the downstream intraday receipt is general, and the downstream orders have weakened after entering January, and the enthusiasm for procurement has also been affected
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position, focusing on the support of the 14,000 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2002 contract can be long around 14080 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14000 yuan / ton
.