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On Wednesday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum encountered obstacles to the upside, with the highest 16820 yuan / ton and the lowest 16520 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 16630 yuan / ton, down 0.
36% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fell slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2148.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
26%
on a daily basis.
Market Focus: (1) Powell stressed that the Fed will not tighten monetary policy just to respond to a strong labor market, and if there is any change in the pace of bond purchases, the Fed will send a clear message
much earlier.
(2) According to data from the International Aluminium Association, global primary aluminum production in January 2021 was 5.
701 million tons, an increase of 0.
23% month-on-month and 4.
29%
year-on-year.
In 2020, global primary aluminum production totaled 65.
296 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
57%.
Spot analysis: On February 24, spot A00 aluminum reported 16720-16760 yuan / ton, the average price was 16740 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation of goods is abundant, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the transaction activity is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 108139 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 49 tons; On February 23, LME aluminum stocks were 1343075 tons, down 6,075 tons per day, down 14 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 123136 lots, a daily decrease of 747 lots, a short position of 147639 lots, a daily decrease of 683 lots, a net short position of 24503 lots, a daily increase of 64 lots, both long and short reduction, net short increase
.
Market research and judgment: On February 24, the upward movement of Shanghai aluminum 2104 was blocked
.
The US fiscal stimulus is expected to be launched, coupled with the second round of program expectations, the dollar index is under pressure to the downside, and Powell promised that he will not easily tighten policy, boosting market risk sentiment
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, stimulating the continuous release of production capacity, superimposed downstream processing enterprises have not fully resumed work, domestic aluminum inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, aluminum prices have been suspended
.
However, inventories are still at low levels overall; Coupled with the prospect of economic recovery, it is expected to drive demand to continue to improve, supporting the high operation of aluminum prices
.
Technically, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position to close the doji, and the daily KDJ indicator was dead-crossed, and it is expected that the market will be weakly adjusted
in the future.
