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LME copper fell slightly on Thursday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was at $6290.
5 / ton, down 0.
18%
on the day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper encountered obstacles to the upside, with a maximum of 49,400 yuan / ton, a minimum of 49,160 yuan / ton, and a closing price of 49,200 yuan / ton, down 0.
12% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 52450 lots, and the daily decrease was 26058 lots; The position was 141,900 lots, an increase of 324 lots
per day.
The basis was reduced to -260 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2002-2003 widened to -160 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement was signed
at the White House in the United States.
(2) At 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the United States will release December retail sales data, which is expected to increase by 0.
3%, up from 0.
2%
in the previous month.
(3) In 2019, First Quantum Mining produced 702,000 tons of copper, an increase of 96,000 tons from 2018, and the company plans to produce 830,000 tons to 880,000 tons of copper
in 2020.
Spot analysis: On January 16, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 48860-49020 yuan / ton, the average price was 48940 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton
daily.
Market buying is reduced, holders are willing to exchange cash, there is room for price pressure, downstream buying is rare, wet copper once to a discount of 300 yuan / ton low price
.
The Spring Festival is approaching, market demand has shrunk significantly, the willingness to hedge will still increase, and spot discounts will still be under pressure, but under the oversupply of demand, the large discount pattern may continue
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 70,724 tons on Thursday, down 372 tons per day; On January 15, LME copper stocks were 128,050 tons, down 50 tons per day, down 36 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract are 96865 lots, a daily increase of 270 lots, a short position of 100898 lots, a daily decrease of 280 lots, a net short position of 4033 lots, a daily decrease of 550 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net short.
On January 16, the upward movement of Shanghai copper main force 2003 was blocked
.
China and the United States formally signed the first phase of the economic and trade agreement, and then the specific implementation and the negotiation of the second phase of the agreement still need attention, the market is optimistic, the copper price slightly supported, but the trend of Shanghai inventory divergence, Shanghai copper inventory showed an accelerated upward trend, London copper inventory in the past month of continuous decline, while the recent appreciation of the RMB, domestic copper import profit window slightly opened, December copper imports increased sharply, copper prices upward weak
。 In terms of spot, market buying is decreasing, holders are willing to exchange cash, there is room for price reduction, downstream buying is scarce, the Spring Festival is approaching, market demand has shrunk significantly, and the willingness to hedge will still increase
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MACD green column reduction of Shanghai copper, mainstream short positions increased largely, and short-term shock adjustment
is expected.
