The main trend of Shanghai copper fell slightly, and short-term shock adjustment is expected

Market focus: (1) The EU economic rescue plan is at an impasse, and the theme of the meeting is to discuss the size of the EU's budget from 2021 to 2027 and the "recovery fund" package
totaling 750 billion euros.
(2) As of July 17, the TC fee of China's copper smelter was 48 US dollars / dry ton, down 2 US dollars / dry ton
from last week.

Spot analysis: On July 20, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51300-51450 yuan / ton, with an average price of 51375 yuan / ton, down 315 yuan / ton
per day.
Downstream remained rigid, and transactions continued to improve
slightly.
This week has entered the long order delivery cycle, and copper is in a correction period, the holder intends to rise the water, the premium is easy to rise and fall, the market transaction will also improve
significantly.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 65,262 tons, an increase of 636 tons per day; On July 17, LME copper stocks were 157,350 tons, down 2,450 tons per day, and fell for 23 consecutive days
.
As of the week of July 17, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 158647 tons, a weekly increase of 21,311 tons, an increase of three consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contract were 78327 lots, minus 1201 lots, short positions were 73434 lots, daily minus 289 lots, net long positions were 4893 lots, daily minus 912 lots, long and short were reduced, net long and long decreased
.

Recently, the Sino-US dispute has been intensifying, coupled with the global epidemic situation is still grim, crude oil prices have fallen under pressure, and market worries have heated up again; The recent recovery of low Shanghai copper inventories, coupled with the spread of refined waste price spreads, has increased the pressure on copper prices
.
However, China's economy showed a stable and positive trend, and the downstream demand in the future market was further repaired upward; And the supply of upstream copper mines is tightening, copper processing fees TC is lowered again, coupled with weak sulfuric acid prices, domestic copper smelting production will continue to be suppressed, and the support for copper prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, the downstream maintained rigid demand, and the transaction continued to improve
slightly.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2009 contract is large, focusing on the support of the 51000 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2009 contract can operate in the range of 51000-51800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 200 yuan / ton
each.