The main trend of Shanghai aluminum is weak, or it will maintain a volatile pattern

Market focus: (1) US President Joe Biden's team proposed to reduce the size of Biden's infrastructure and jobs plan by about a quarter to $1.
7 trillion, hoping to gain the support of Republicans who have been working to limit the
size of Biden's plan.
(2) The National Development and Reform Commission and other five major departments jointly interviewed and reminded key commodity enterprises
.
(3) As of the 24th, according to my nonferrous metal network statistics: the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in China's main market (2021/5/20-2021/5/24) was about 99,500 tons, a decrease of 02,000 tons
from the previous period's data.

Spot analysis: On May 21, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 18320-18360 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18340 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is tight, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, the receiving party is bargaining for procurement, the downstream demand is better, and the transaction activity is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 159804 tons on Monday, down 6,420 tons from the previous trading day; On May 21, LME stocks stood at 1750350 tonnes, down 7,000 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2107 contract held 158151 lots, a daily decrease of 9993 lots, a short position of 147452 lots, a daily decrease of 4523 lots, a net long position of 10699 lots, a daily decrease of 3184 lots, long and short and net short were reduced
.

Market research: The Fed's signal to reduce the size did not bring much support to the dollar, the economic recovery of the euro area and the United Kingdom will support the euro and the pound, putting pressure on the dollar, and the dollar index may maintain consolidation in the short term, or there may be further
downside.
In terms of policy, the National Development and Reform Commission and other five major departments jointly interviewed to remind key commodity enterprises, and market sentiment was once again frustrated
.
On the supply side, the accelerated pace of domestic new construction and resumption of production in the second quarter coupled with the recent increase in imports has led to an increase in overall supply, in addition, the upgrade of power restrictions in Yunnan will affect some output
.
In terms of demand, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is still in a state of decomposition, and the peak season just needs to strongly support aluminum prices
.
Overall, in the near future, Shanghai aluminum is intertwined, aluminum prices may maintain a volatile pattern, and the overall center of gravity may return to the 10,000 mark
.
Technically, the main 2107 contract day MACD indicator of Shanghai aluminum shows a significant expansion of the green kinetic energy column, focusing on moving average support
.