The main shock operation of Shanghai aluminum is expected to stabilize in the short-term

Market focus: (1) Senate Democrats pushed Biden's $1.
9 trillion stimulus plan into the fast-track
passage on February 2.
The U.
S.
Senate will hold a final vote on the resolution on Feb.
4, and the House of Representatives will also vote
this week.
(2) Last week, the new confirmed cases of new crown in the world have shown a downward trend
for the third consecutive week.
(3) According to the International Aluminium Association, in December 2020, the global output of alumina was 11.
84 million tons, and the output in November was 11.
376 million tons, an increase of 4% month-on-month; In the same period of 2019, it was 11.
27 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
06%.

Spot analysis: On February 3, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15010-15050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15030 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of circulating goods is sufficient, traders are waiting and seeing, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction performance remains weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 84,451 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 1,520 tons per day; On February 2, LME aluminum stocks were 1421725 tons, down 6,450 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 95134 lots, a daily increase of 1572 lots, short positions are 117378 lots, a daily increase of 1023 lots, a net short position of 22244 lots, a daily decrease of 549 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 oscillation operation
on February 3.
Global new coronavirus cases fell for the third week in a row, coupled with Biden's stimulus bill entering the fast track, market optimism picked up, but the market expected a stronger economic recovery in the United States than in Europe, making the dollar index strong
.
The recent closure of the import arbitrage window has curbed the inflow
of overseas goods.
However, the inventory of aluminum in Japan's three major Hong Kong recorded a rebound in December, indicating that supply pressure increased; And the high profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum stimulates the release of production capacity, the market supply performance is abundant, coupled with the end of the downstream stock is basically over, demand gradually weakened, the recent inventory has shown a growth trend, aluminum prices lack upward momentum
.
Technically, the main 2103 contract contraction of Shanghai aluminum fell into adjustment, and the daily MACD low golden cross, it is expected to stabilize and fluctuate
in the short term.