The main shock operation of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be relatively strong in the short term

Market focus: (1) Moderna said that its experimental new crown vaccine has reached 94.
5%
effectiveness in preventing the new crown virus.
(2) At the November FOMC meeting, Fed officials kept interest rates near zero and did not change their asset purchase program
.
However, Powell said after the meeting that the Fed may adjust the plan to provide more stimulus
to the US economy.
(3) On November 16, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 615,000 tons, down 14,000 tons from last Thursday and close to the low of 592,000 tons at the beginning of the year
.

Spot analysis: On November 17, spot A00 aluminum reported 15570-15610 yuan / ton, the average price was 15590 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the quotations of cargo holders were firm, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods declined, and the downstream part of the procurement, the transaction was slightly weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 126134 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 527 tons; On November 16, LME aluminum stocks were 1413775 tons, down 900 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract were 82350 lots, minus 1251 lots per day, short positions were 99880 lots, daily minus 3220 lots, net short positions were 17530 lots, daily minus 1969 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On November 17, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2012 shock operation
.
Good news from the new crown vaccine, coupled with the dovish signal released by the Federal Reserve, the US index is under pressure; Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, domestic spot inventory continued to deteriorate, now close to the low level at the beginning of the year, the tight supply of goods makes the market price willingness is higher, aluminum price performance is relatively strong
.
However, the global pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, and the economic outlook remains risky; Coupled with the continued weakening of alumina prices, the high profit of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, which will pose a resistance
to aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2012 contract reduction performance of Shanghai aluminum is resistant, and the mainstream short position reduction is larger, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.