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Internal and external trends: LME copper opened high on Thursday, as of 16:20 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6217.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
79%
per day.
The main 2002 contract of Shanghai copper rose slightly, with the highest price of 49340 yuan / ton, the lowest 49120 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 49230 yuan / ton, up 0.
16% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 42,747 lots, and the daily decrease was 29,593 lots; The position was 110,400 lots, a daily decrease of 9,374 lots
.
The basis remained narrowed to -155 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2002-2003 widened to -120 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 51.
5 in December, down slightly by 0.
3 percentage points
.
(2) On January 15, 2020, Trump will sign the phase one agreement
with high-level Chinese representatives at the White House.
Later he will travel to Beijing to begin negotiations
on the second phase of the agreement.
(3) The People's Bank of China will cut the RRR by 50 basis points on January 6, releasing more than 800 billion
yuan of long-term funds.
(4) Chile's copper production in November fell by 6.
7% year-on-year to 504366 tons
.
Spot analysis: On January 2, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 49030-49120 yuan / ton, the average price is 49075 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 55 yuan / ton
.
The intraday market transaction has significantly increased the activity before the New Year's Day, the enthusiasm for trading has improved, the low-discount source is still attractive, the holders' intention to push up the water is still unfinished, and the willingness of short-term traders to raise prices is clear
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 62,963 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 5,284 tons, an increase of 5 consecutive days; On December 31, LME copper stocks were 145,700 tons, down 1,425 tons per day, and fell for 26 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2002 contract were 69559 lots, minus 5080 lots per day, short positions were 80424 lots, daily minus 5924 lots, net short positions were 10866 lots, daily minus 844 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On January 2, the main force of Shanghai copper 2002 fluctuated slightly
.
China's December Caixin manufacturing PMI data performed less than expected and ended a five-month rally, while downstream peak season demand has weakened, copper price upward momentum can weaken, but Sino-US trade negotiations are further optimistic, and the People's Bank of China lowered the RRR, releasing sufficient liquidity to the market, coupled with the upstream Chilean copper mine production decline year-on-year, copper mine supply tight led to copper TC prices at a low level, supporting copper prices
。 In terms of spot, intraday market trading activity has increased significantly compared with before the New Year's Day, trading enthusiasm has improved, low-discount sources are still attractive, holders are still willing to push up water, short-term traders are willing to raise prices
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai copper reduced its position, and the daily MACD green column contracted, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.
