The main shock of Shanghai copper rose slightly, and downstream consumption was weak

Market focus: (1) The US Congress has closely consulted bipartisanly and is close to reaching a consensus on the first part of the $748 billion plan, which is expected to be launched
before the Christmas recess of Congress.
(2) At 3 a.
m.
on Thursday, the Fed will announce its last interest rate decision of the year, and the market expects it to be dovish
.
(3) Codelco, Chile's national copper industry, reached a labor agreement
with two unions at the Ventanas Smelter and Refinery.
The union at Chilean miner Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine reached a collective bargaining
agreement with management.

Spot analysis: On December 16, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 57800-57950 yuan / ton, with an average price of 57875 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 455 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders actively dumped goods, market inquiries were less, and downstream consumption was weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 32,391 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 501 tons per day; On December 15, LME copper stocks were 141,900 tons, down 2,875 tons per day, down for six consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2102 contract were 63284 lots, a daily increase of 3930 lots, short positions were 67892 lots, a daily increase of 2663 lots, a net short position of 4608 lots, a daily decrease of 1267 lots, both long and short increases, and net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2102 volatility rose slightly on December 16
.
Expectations of a US stimulus package and dovish expectations for the Fed kept the dollar index low
.
The upstream domestic copper mine supply remained tight, and the copper processing fee TC remained low, which made the refinery production cost high, but the increase in the inflow of high-grade scrap copper made the electrolytic copper production capacity accelerated
.
Recently, the import window has opened, the inflow of overseas goods has increased, and the inventory of the two cities has decreased and increased internally; Downstream market demand maintained a good performance, of which cable companies remained high, and the terminal industry continued to improve, making the demand outlook optimistic and supporting
copper prices.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2102 contract increased its position, and the mainstream long position increased significantly, and it is expected that the short-term high level will be adjusted
.