The main shock of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and the short-term high level was adjusted

Market Focus: (1) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that there are still major differences on some topics in the stimulus talks, that progress will continue on some issues, and that reaching an agreement before the election will be difficult
.
(2) In September, China's CPI index rose 0.
2% month-on-month and 1.
7% year-on-year; The PPI rose 0.
1% month-on-month and fell 2.
1%
year-on-year.
(3) Antaike said that China will add 3 million tons of aluminum production capacity in 2021, of which more than half will come from the emerging smelting in Yunnan Province; An additional 6.
7 million tons of alumina capacity will be added in 2021 and 4.
6 million tons
in 2022.

Spot analysis: On October 15, spot A00 aluminum reported 14940-14980 yuan / ton, the average price was 14960 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders intend to ship at a high price, large households continue to purchase, and the market is stable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 126691 tons on Thursday, an increase of 1320 tons per day; On October 14, LME aluminum stocks were 141215 tons, down 475 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2011 contract are 72344 lots, minus 225 lots per day, short positions are 91886 lots, daily increase of 602 lots, net short positions are 19542 lots, daily increase of 827 lots, more short increases, net short increases
.

Market research and judgment: On October 15, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2011 fluctuated slightly
.
China's September import and export data performed strongly, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum, domestic market demand performed better, and overseas demand also improved, and recent London aluminum inventories continued to deteriorate, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, the new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually released, and the resumption of production by Hydro is earlier than expected, which will continue to put pressure on alumina prices, and the high profits of aluminum plants will also stimulate idle capacity and limit the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum has increased and decreased, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and the short-term high adjustment
is expected.