The main shock of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and the demand outlook is optimistic

Market focus: (1) At 2:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the US FOMC will announce its interest rate decision; At 2:30, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference
.
(2) U.
S.
retail sales fell 3.
0% m/m in February versus 0.
5% expected versus 7.
6%
in the previous month.
U.
S.
core retail sales fell 2.
7% m/m in February versus 0.
1% expected; The previous reading was revised to an increase of 8.
3%.

(3) From January to February, the national output of alumina was 12.
643 million tons, a cumulative increase of 14.
8%
year-on-year.
From January to February, the national primary aluminum output was 6.
452 million tons, a cumulative increase of 8.
4%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On March 17, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17510-17550 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17530 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan / ton
daily.
Holders are holding goods and selling them, their willingness to receive goods has improved, and the transaction activity is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 161607 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 50 tons; On March 16, LME aluminum stocks were 1910650 tons, down 6,075 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract are 159920 lots, a daily increase of 2018 lots, short positions 171807 lots, a daily increase of 2425 lots, a net short position of 11887 lots, a daily increase of 407 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On March 17, Shanghai aluminum 2105 oscillated slightly
.
With the Fed's interest rate decision approaching, the market expects the Fed to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy and raise economic growth expectations, in addition to focusing on the Fed's tolerance
for rising inflation.
Domestic aluminum production profits remained high, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to increase, but the speed of production slowed down, and Inner Mongolia Baotou energy consumption dual control policy, shut down part of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity
.
And the recent inventory growth rate has shown signs of slowdown, coupled with the downstream demand season gradually approaching, the demand outlook is optimistic, and the aluminum price support is strong
.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position significantly, focusing on the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the market volatility will be strong
.