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The main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated lower during the day, with the highest 20045 yuan / ton, the lowest 19680 yuan / ton, and the close at 19735 yuan / ton, down 1.
13% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum was weakly volatile, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2600 / ton, down 0.
48%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) Fed Governor Waller: inflation is significantly higher than the 2% target; The Fed may announce tapering by September 15; Inflation is expected to cool in the second half of the year; If the employment target is not met, the announcement of debt reduction will be delayed; The Fed is likely to taper its bond purchases at a faster pace than last time; There is no reason to slow tapering
.
(2) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI came in at 50.
3 in July, the lowest since May 2020, and 51.
3
in the previous month.
The manufacturing production index and new orders index recorded 16-month and 15-month lows respectively in July.
The employment index was slightly above the boom and bust line, and was in the expansion zone for the fourth consecutive month
.
Spot analysis: spot A00 aluminum reported 19770-19810 yuan / ton, the average price was 19790 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan
daily.
The holder actively ships the goods, the receiver actively purchases at the low, the trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 90,268 tons, a daily decrease of 25 tons; LME stocks were 1371150 tonnes, down 7,425 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 155680 lots, minus 10601 lots per day, short positions 156035 lots, minus 8367 lots per day, net long positions 355 lots, minus 3248 lots
per day.
Both long and short and net long are reduced
.
Market research: The recent deterioration of the epidemic at home and abroad, and the US and Chinese manufacturing data are not as expected, indicating that although the economy is still recovering, the pace of recovery has slowed down significantly, and market caution has heated up
.
This week's focus is on the US non-farm payrolls report for July, which has a key guiding effect on the
Fed's future policy direction.
Fundamentals, the recent supply disturbance in the aluminum market, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to suffer, and the latest data show that aluminum ingot inventories continue to decline
.
In the recent stage, the overall aluminum market destocking has exceeded expectations, and the short-term supply and demand gap still exists
.
Technically, the AL2019 contract 1-hour MACD indicator is down, and the green bar expands
.
Operationally, sell high and low in the range of 19420-20000, and stop loss 250 points
.
