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On Thursday, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, with the highest 14,600 yuan / ton and the lowest 14,445 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14,505 yuan / ton, down 0.
31% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME aluminum fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1783 US dollars / ton, down 0.
56%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at keeping interest rates low until 2023, although the economy is expected to contract by 3.
7% this year, stronger than the 6.
5%
contraction forecast in June.
(2) The U.
S.
chief of staff said the White House was open to a new $1.
52 trillion stimulus package, and the bipartisan consensus in the United States was expected to heat up
.
(3) China's primary aluminum production in August increased by 5.
5% year-on-year to 3.
171 million tons, and output from January to August increased by 2.
3% year-on-year to 24.
304 million tons; aluminum production in August increased by 11.
4% year-on-year to 4.
86 million tons, and output from January to August increased by 5.
5% year-on-year to 34.
985 million tons
.
Spot analysis: On September 17, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14570-14610 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14590 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that shipments have tightened significantly, receiving goods has improved slightly, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable, and the activity of trading is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 138177 tons on Thursday, down 772 tons per day; On September 16, LME aluminum stocks were 1,510,400 tons, a daily decrease of 3,525 tons, a 20-day
decline.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contracts are 77540 lots, minus 909 lots per day, short positions are 87999 lots, daily minus 1738 lots, net short positions are 10459 lots, daily minus 829 lots, long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On September 17, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2010 fell slightly
.
The Fed raised its economic forecasts for this year, and the dollar index rebounded from its lows; And the domestic electrolytic aluminum production is gradually released, and the aluminum production in August fell slightly month-on-month, and the supply and demand pattern is loose, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level, and the import window is in a preliminary closed state, which will gradually inhibit the inflow of overseas goods; At the same time, the downstream aluminum rod warehouse continues to degrade, currently reaching a low level in the year, and there is an expectation of recovery in future market demand, which is expected to drive the operating rate of aluminum enterprises to rebound, which supports aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, and there is resistance above 14700, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term high.
