The main shock of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and the upward momentum may weaken

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said on Friday that the Treasury and the Fed have enough ammunition to support the economy, and he also said that negotiations on stimulus measures will continue
.
(2) Mymetal surveyed 83 electrolytic aluminum plants in production across the country, with a total inventory of 68,000 tons, a decrease of 02,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 08,000 tons from the same period last month, a new low
in the year.
(3) According to data from the International Aluminum Association, in October, global primary aluminum production was 5.
592 million tons, an increase of 4.
52% over the same period last year of 5.
35 million tons; This was up 3.
54%
from 5.
401 million tons in the previous month.

Spot analysis: On November 23, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15960-16000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15980 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that some holders are reluctant to sell, the circulation supply is limited, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is average, and the transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 98,237 tons, a daily decrease of 12,099 tons, a decline of 5 consecutive days; On November 20, LME aluminum stocks were 1399525 tons, down 4,900 tons
per day.
As of the week ended November 20, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 232091 tons, down 486 tons
weekly.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contracts were 74633 lots, minus 2407 lots per day, short positions were 93802 lots, daily minus 1763 lots, net short positions were 19169 lots, a daily increase of 644 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On November 23, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2012 fell slightly
.
The spread of the epidemic in the United States and the expectation of a Brexit deal in the United Kingdom have weakened the dollar index, and the positive news of the new crown vaccine has boosted market optimism; Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, domestic spot inventory continued to deteriorate, has reached a new low in the year, the tight supply of goods makes the market price willingness is high, supporting the high operation of aluminum prices
.
However, alumina prices continue to weaken, and the high profits of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, the pressure on the supply side will gradually increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

Technically, the main 2012 contract position of Shanghai aluminum is reduced, focusing on the 16,000 position, and it is expected to run
at a short-term high.