The main shock of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and the downstream received goods generally

Market focus: (1) Through the joint efforts of the economic and trade teams of China and the United States, the two sides have reached an agreement on the text of the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement
on the basis of the principles of equality and mutual respect.
(2) In November 2019, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.
9 million tons, down 3.
2% year-on-year; The cumulative output from January to November was 32.
13 million tons, down 0.
6%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On December 16, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13990-14030 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14010 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market circulation supply is tight, the holders do not ship much, the middlemen receive the goods enthusiasm is abnormally high, mainly because some holders in the early stage of the high price of the goods under the background of the decline in the enthusiasm for shipment, and traders have delivery demand to receive goods actively, downstream goods are general, mainly based on on-demand procurement, the price is not very recognized
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 54,053 tons, an increase of 3,393 tons per day; On December 13, LME aluminum stocks were 1375675 tons, an increase of 31,875 tons per day, an increase of 5 consecutive days
.
As of the week of December 13, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 218367 tons, a weekly decrease of 15,529 tons, a decline of four consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract are 78417 lots, a daily increase of 1119 lots, short positions are 84757 lots, a daily decrease of 90 lots, a net short position of 6340 lots, a daily decrease of 1209 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net space.

Market research and judgment: On December 16, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 fell slightly
.
China and the United States reached an agreement on the text of the first phase of the economic and trade agreement, market confidence was boosted, while the Brexit situation was further optimistic, the pound rose and the dollar was suppressed, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to decline, inventories continued to deteriorate, downstream demand showed marginal improvement, aluminum rod stocks were digested, supporting aluminum prices, but Lun aluminum inventories continued to increase, now rising to a new high in the year, and upstream alumina production remained high, inventory accumulation prices under pressure, pressure on aluminum prices
。 In terms of spot, the market circulation is tight, the holders do not ship much, the middlemen are extremely enthusiastic about receiving goods, while traders have delivery demand to receive goods actively, downstream goods are generally received, and the price is not well recognized
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract daily MACD red column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support of the 13840 position below, and it is expected to adjust the short-term shock
.