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LME aluminum fluctuated slightly on Thursday, as of 15:45 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1847.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
03%
per day.
The main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, with the highest 13,900 yuan / ton and the lowest 13,825 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 13,870 yuan / ton, down 0.
11% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 109,900 lots, an increase of 21,962 lots per day, and the position was 232,200 lots, an increase of 8,042 lots
per day.
The basis was expanded to -20 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 1908-1909 narrowed to -25 yuan / ton
.
Market focus, US housing starts fell for 2 consecutive months, and construction permit data fell to a 2-year low; At the same time, the IMF's latest report states that the US dollar's real effective exchange rate is expected to be relatively overvalued by 6-12%
compared to US fundamentals.
The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released data on Wednesday that the supply gap in the primary aluminum market from January to May 2019 was 344,000 tons, and the gap for the whole of 2018 was 993,000 tons
.
Alcoa cut its global demand forecast, expecting global aluminum demand to grow 1.
25 to 2.
25 percent, compared with previous estimates of a 2 to 3 percent
increase.
Spot analysis, on July 18, spot A00 aluminum quotation 13830-13870 yuan / ton, the average price of 13850 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day
.
In the morning, the shippers were very active, but the transaction was slightly deadlocked, and the number of middlemen receiving goods in the second trading stage increased significantly, and the trading of buyers and sellers was active
.
The downstream is still purchased on demand, and there is no bright
spot in a small amount of stocking.
The overall transaction in East China was better
.
Warehouse receipt inventory, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 153121 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 99 tons; On July 17, LME aluminum stocks were 987275 tons, down 6,850 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 1909 contract were 75884 lots, a daily increase of 2628 lots, short positions were 84346 lots, a daily increase of 1584 lots, a net short position of 8462 lots, a daily decrease of 1044 lots, both long and short increased, and net space decreased
.
During the day, the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly
.
The poor performance of the US economic data, coupled with the IMF's statement that the dollar is overvalued, put pressure on the dollar, coupled with the continued weakness of downstream demand, put pressure on aluminum prices, but upstream alumina prices stopped falling and rebounded, and downstream aluminum rod inventories continued, and the support for aluminum prices increased
.
In terms of spot, the morning holders were very active in shipments, but the more and less transactions were slightly deadlocked, and the number of middlemen receiving goods in the second trading stage increased significantly, and the trading of buyers and sellers was active
.
The downstream is still purchased on demand, and there is no bright
spot in a small amount of stocking.
Technically, the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum focuses on the support of the 20-day moving average below, and it is expected to fluctuate more in the short term
.
