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As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month LME aluminum was reported at $1759.
5 / ton, down 0.
03%
per day.
The main 2001 contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to fall, with the highest 13795 yuan / ton and the lowest 13705 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 13735 yuan / ton, down 0.
15% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume 104446 lots, with a daily increase of 5590 lots; The position was 206,100 lots, an increase of 3,878 lots
per day.
The basis was reduced to 155 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 2001-2002 widened to 40 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) US new home sales fell 0.
7% annualized monthly rate last month, less than the previous expected increase of 0.
8%; The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 125.
5 this month vs 125.
9 prior, and 126.
8
expected.
(2) China's primary aluminum imports in October were 4525.
27 tons, down 13.
16% from the previous month and 78.
39%
year-on-year.
(3) In October, 4,239 tons of alumina were exported, down 99.
1% year-on-year; From January to October, the cumulative export was 227373 tons, down 77.
2%
year-on-year.
In October, 240,000 tons of alumina were imported, a year-on-year increase of 397.
9%; From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 1.
03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 125.
3%.
Spot analysis: On November 27, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13930-13970 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13950 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Spot prices in East China continued to fall, holders were more willing to ship, middlemen were more active in receiving goods, and trading between the two sides was more active
.
Downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand and purchase
normally.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Wednesday was 72,519 tons, a daily decrease of 1,047 tons; On November 26, LME aluminum stocks were 1229475 tons, an increase of 550 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract are 65140 lots, a daily increase of 887 lots, a short position of 71385 lots, a daily decrease of 242 lots, a net short position of 6245 lots, a daily decrease of 1129 lots, more increase and a decrease in net short
.
Market research and judgment: Sino-US trade high-level call again, the possibility of reaching an agreement between the two sides increases, while the recent US economic data is not as expected, the US dollar is under slight pressure, and the current electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and aluminum rod inventory continue to deteriorate, the aluminum price is supported, but China and the United States are still in order to reach a substantive agreement, and the upstream alumina inventory accumulation suppresses the price, electrolytic aluminum production is expected to increase, and the divergence of the inventory trend in London and Shanghai may help the import profit window to open, and the pressure on aluminum prices increases
。 In terms of spot, spot prices in East China continued to fall, holders were more willing to ship, middlemen were more active in receiving goods, and trading between the two sides was more active
.
Downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand and purchase
normally.
Technically, the main 2001 contract daily MACD red column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream short positions increase large, is expected to be weak
short-term shock.
