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Weather in rubber producing areas: Southern Thailand will have significantly less rainfall in the coming week, with less
impact on rubber tapping efforts.
According to the Rubber Market Intelligence Report recently released by ANRPC, China's rubber imports will increase
by January 2022 due to demand before the Spring Festival.
There is a seasonal supply shortage as rubber trees in major producing countries overwinter each year, while Chinese manufacturers are expected to stock up on natural rubber stocks
ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.
According to foreign media reports on December 28, the maximum potential of India's natural rubber production will decline
in the next few years due to the rising proportion of old plantations with extremely low productivity.
Assuming that the current trend of new planting and replanting remains unchanged, the maximum potential production, currently around 980,000 mt/year, will decline to 889,000 mt in 2030 and only 349,000 mt in 2040
.
At present, the domestic Yunnan production area is in the period of suspension, and the Hainan production area has also stopped cutting, and the recent rainfall in southern Thailand has weakened, and the output is expected
to increase.
Due to the soaring freight rates in Southeast Asia, imports have been blocked, and the inbound volume has not returned to normal levels, while the decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream procurement enthusiasm, and inventory in Qingdao has continued to be destocked
.
Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell slightly month-on-month, and the start of maintenance manufacturers resumed to boost, but under the pressure of finished product inventory, superimposed on the reduction of foreign trade orders of tire factories, the replacement of domestic terminals is coming to an end, manufacturers are cautious in scheduling, and the short-term operating rate is expected to be difficult to significantly increase
.
On the market, the price of natural rubber futures on Wednesday was strong and volatile, and as of the close, the main force of Shanghai rubber RU2205 rose 75 yuan to 14820 yuan / ton, continuing the bottoming rebound trend
since last Tuesday.
RU2205 contract increased positions to close higher, short-term focus on the pressure around 14830, if successfully broken, it is expected to further look at the 14970 line, it is recommended to wait and see for
the time being.
