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On Monday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back to the high, with the highest 68230 yuan / ton and the lowest 66860 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 67520 yuan / ton, up 0.
90% from the closing price of the previous trading day; Externally, LME copper fell slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $9,089 / ton, down 0.
48%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) Goldman Sachs expects the US full-year GDP to increase by 8.
0% in 2021, further higher than the previous forecast of 7.
0%, while the US unemployment rate outlook is also further revised
downward.
(2) According to my nonferrous metals, China's copper concentrate port inventory on March 12 was 539,000 tons, a weekly increase of 59,000 tons; at the same time, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 32.
2 US dollars / dry ton, down 1.
3 US dollars / dry ton weekly, once again refreshing the lowest since
2011.
Spot analysis: On March 15, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 67520-67900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 67710 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1050 yuan / ton
.
Some traders tested the waters, downstream consumption improved slightly, and the overall transaction was limited
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 114073 tons on Monday, a daily increase of 19,562 tons, an increase of 7 consecutive days; On March 12, LME copper stocks were 93,450 tons, an increase of 2,625 tons per day, an increase of 5 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract are 94902 lots, a daily increase of 5001 lots, short positions are 101577 lots, a daily increase of 7495 lots, a net short position of 6675 lots, a daily increase of 2494 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2105 rushed back on
March 15.
US President Joe Biden officially signed the 1.
9 trillion stimulus plan, and the Federal Reserve continued to ease policy, which boosted market risk sentiment, but rising expectations of US economic growth and inflation strengthened US bond yields and the US dollar
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continue to decline, and processing fee TC continues to decline, resulting in high smelting costs, and the recent risk of copper mine strikes in Chile has revived, and copper mine tightening concerns have increased
.
The performance of downstream domestic demand is still weak, but domestic inventories are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; And with the arrival of the traditional peak season, downstream demand is expected to improve, which supports copper prices
.
Technically, the mainstream short positions of the Shanghai copper 2105 contract increased significantly, focusing on the support of the 20-day moving average, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
