The main force of Shanghai copper rushed back down and maintained a volatile trend in the short term

On the macro front, the US ISM manufacturing index was 52.
8 in August, better than expected at 51.
9, and the previous reading was 52.
8
in July.
Both the July and August ISM manufacturing indices were the lowest since
June 2020.
The U.
S.
ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 56.
9 in August, better than the expected 55.
1
.
The U.
S.
services sector recovered for the second straight month in August on strong orders and employment, while supply bottlenecks and price pressures eased
.
The US non-farm payrolls data for August was 315,000 compared with 520,000 in the previous month, slightly higher than the agency forecast of 300,000
.
The unemployment rate was 3.
7 percent, up from 0.
2 percent in the previous month, with an unexpected rise forming a core impact
.

On the supply side, the interference of overseas mines has temporarily come to an end, the impact of the "Qinhuangdao copper concentrate trade" incident is still fermenting, and the market sells the inflow of goods from Qinhuangdao
.
At the smelting end, with the drop in temperature, the power rationing situation in Sichuan and Hunan in China has eased
to a certain extent.
Some smelters in South China were overhauled, and TC rose by $2.
54/ton month-on-month to $79.
25/ton, and the supply at the mine end was looser
than that at the smelting end.
On the import side, the import profit window has reopened amid the continued strength of the US dollar, and it is expected that subsequent inventories will shift to the country
.

On the demand side, copper prices fell behind last week, and downstream customers took advantage of the dip to cover their positions
.
Considering that some fine copper rod processing enterprises have reduced the operating rate due to power restrictions, enterprises have sufficient orders in hand, and after the impact of electricity in the near term, the operating rate of some copper rod factories has exceeded 100%, and it is expected that the later production schedule will continue to be stable
.
The supply of recycled copper was tightened by the impact of the lower price of refined copper, and the procurement of raw materials by recycled copper rod enterprises was inhibited
.
The enameled wire industry is dragged down by the continuous poor consumption of home appliances and other industries, and it is possible that the peak season will not be strong
.
At present, the demand for local infrastructure projects such as urban network transformation, rail transit, and communication industries is still rising.
From January to July, the cumulative completion of power projects was 260 billion yuan, a cumulative increase of 16.
8%
year-on-year.
Among them, the investment in power supply projects of photovoltaic power generation enterprises was 77.
3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 304%, and the installed capacity of photovoltaics increased significantly, driving the steady growth of cable demand
.
However, traditional real estate and state grid ports have always been difficult to find consumption highlights, copper consumption still lacks a powerful engine, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether traditional infrastructure ports can exceed expectations in the future
.

On the whole, the main trading logic of Shanghai copper returned to macro in September, due to the hawkish voice of the Federal Reserve, there is not much room for debate in the federal funds rate target of 3.
75-4.
00% this year, and the market began to trade the possibility of
a rate cut in May next year.
In terms of fundamentals, although the consumption of gold, silver and ten peak seasons has not improved much, the low inventory situation still exists, and the fundamentals are strong
.
It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the price will run in the range of 58,000-63,000 yuan / ton in the near future
.