The main force of Shanghai copper rushed back down and adjusted short-term shocks

Market focus: (1) The trading price of the US federal funds rate futures contract shows that traders expect the Fed to reduce the federal funds rate to negative territory as early as November this year
.
(2) SMM data, China's electrolytic copper production in April was 752,400 tons, an increase of 1.
17% month-on-month and 6.
5% year-on-year; Production in May is expected to be 740,100 tons, down 1.
38%
month-on-month.

Spot analysis: On May 11, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 44080-44180 yuan / ton, the average price was 44130 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 540 yuan / ton
.
This week is close to delivery, but the price difference in the next month has widened to 200-220 yuan / ton, the premium has been difficult to top, the number of cash dumpers has increased, the willingness to trade speculation has decreased, the downstream fear of heights, and the state of oversupply highlights that the spot premium may quickly slide into a discount pattern
before this week's delivery.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 62,943 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 6,401 tons, down 35 consecutive days; On May 6, LME copper stocks were 245,100 tons, down 250 tons per day, down 11 consecutive days
.
As of the week of May 8, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 204219 tons, a weekly decrease of 26,737 tons, a decline of 8 consecutive weeks
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2006 contract are 76197 lots, a daily increase of 1830 lots, a daily increase of 83856 lots, a daily increase of 2006 lots, a net short position of 7659 lots, a daily increase of 176 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2006 rushed back down
on May 11.
The US non-farm payrolls data performed poorly, but slightly below market expectations, and the impact of the global epidemic is expected to weaken; At the same time, the possibility of negative interest rates at the Federal Reserve has weighed on the dollar index
.
At present, the price of upstream copper mine TC has fallen to the same level as the record low set last year, the cost of smelting has further risen, coupled with the improvement of downstream demand, and the domestic Shanghai copper inventory continues to deteriorate, which makes the upward momentum of copper prices enhanced; However, it should be noted that the decline in overseas export orders affected by the epidemic has limited the rebound of copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the willingness to speculate in trade has decreased, the downstream fear of heights, and the state of oversupply has highlighted the state of oversupply, so that the spot premium may quickly slide into a discount pattern
before this week's delivery.
Technically, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai copper increased its position, and there was resistance above the 44000 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.