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On Thursday, the main 2106 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back to the high, with the highest 69720 yuan / ton and the lowest 68740 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 69150 yuan / ton, up 0.
63% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper adjusted high, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 9419 US dollars / ton, down 0.
33%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) Recently, the number of new coronary pneumonia confirmed in Japan, India and other countries has risen significantly, of which India has confirmed more than 200,000
new cases for 7 consecutive days.
(2) At 19:45 Beijing time on Thursday, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, followed by ECB President Lagarde holding a press conference
.
The market does not expect the ECB to adjust interest rates, asset purchase programs and bank lending programs
.
(3) WBMS data, the global copper market had an oversupply of 31,600 tons from January to February, and a supply shortage of 983,000 tons
last year.
Spot analysis: On April 22, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 68680-68980 yuan / ton, the average price was 68830 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 300 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that traders are waiting and seeing, downstream consumption is weak, the demand for stocking is not large, and the transaction performance is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 124678 tons on Thursday, an increase of 175 tons per day; On April 21, LME copper stocks were 159,450 tons, down 900 tons per day, down for five consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2106 contract 102856 lots, an increase of 3085 lots per day, short positions 114877 lots, a daily increase of 2770 lots, a net short position of 12021 lots, a daily decrease of 315 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2106 rushed back on
April 22.
The Bank of Canada scaled back its bond-buying program, becoming the first major economy to pull back on emergency monetary stimulus, and the dollar index came under pressure; However, the new coronavirus infection in some countries has recently surged, and risk appetite has cooled
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories have rebounded slightly, copper mine TC has also stabilized, superimposed copper mine new capacity is expected to be put on one after another, copper mine supply is expected to improve, but short-term smelters are still facing high cost pressure
.
At present, copper inventories maintain a slight downward trend, and demand is still flat, but the outlook for future demand is optimistic, which strongly supports copper prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2106 contract increased significantly, facing the pressure of the 70,000 mark, and a slight correction
in the short term is expected.
