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On Wednesday, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply, with the highest 59280 yuan / ton and the lowest 58090 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 59030 yuan / ton, up 1.
58% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper fluctuated at a high level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 8073 US dollars / ton, up 0.
28%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) After contracting 4.
3% in 2020, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.
0% this year, 0.
2 percentage points lower than its previous forecast, although China's economy is expected to grow by 7.
9%, up 1 percentage point
from Hedge, the World Bank said.
(2) China Minmetals' MMG was blocked by protesters at the Las Bambas mine in Peru, and locals went through a three-week barricade to fight the epidemic, and the company may completely stop production
in the next few days.
Spot analysis: On January 6, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 59040-59280 yuan / ton, with an average price of 59160 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1040 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders shipped at high prices, traders were cautious and wait-and-see, and downstream consumption was not obvious
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 30,677 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 1,277 tons; On January 5, LME copper stocks were 105425 tons, down 375 tons per day, falling for 18 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2102 contract are 60363 lots, an increase of 790 lots per day, short positions are 67563 lots, a daily increase of 499 lots, a net short position of 7200 lots, a daily decrease of 291 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2102 rose sharply on January 6
.
The risk of a worsening global pandemic heading into winter has increased, and the World Bank has lowered its economic growth forecasts, weighing on market risk sentiment; However, the dollar index continued to be weak
in anticipation of the US maintaining accommodative monetary policy.
Copper mine protests in South America have increased, copper mine supply disturbances have increased, copper mine processing fees TC have been slightly lowered recently, and copper smelting costs are high; The implementation of the new policy for copper scrap has greatly increased the import volume and widened the price difference of refined waste, and the substitution role will gradually increase; Downstream market demand performance is acceptable, and Shanghai copper inventories remain low, supporting copper prices
.
Technically, the mainstream bulls of the Shanghai Copper 2102 contract increased their positions more, focusing on the resistance of the previous high, and it is expected to continue to rise
slightly in the short term.
