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On Thursday, the main 2110 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and low, with the highest 70860 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 69530 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 69650 yuan / ton, down 0.
23% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at $9470 / ton, down 1.
44%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The Federal Reserve released data showing that manufacturing output rose 0.
2% in August, weaker than expected, and the growth rate was revised upward to 1.
6%
in July.
(2) At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the United States will release retail sales data for August, with the market expecting a decline of 0.
7% and a decline of 1.
1%
in July.
(3) The National Development and Reform Commission said that it will continue to put in material reserves such as copper, aluminum and zinc and closely monitor the price trend
.
(4) WBMS data shows that the copper market has a supply shortage of 103,000 tons from January to July 2021, and a supply shortage of 938,000 tons in 2020
.
(5) Codelco Chile reached a collective bargaining agreement with the union of Salvador, a small copper mine that produced 56,300 tons of copper
in 2020.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 70300-70800 yuan / ton, the average price is 70550 yuan / ton, daily increase of 730 yuan / ton
.
Some holders are selling goods, downstream bargain hunting has increased, the double festival is approaching and stocking is active, the trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the overall trading volume is limited
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts during the day was 22,558 tons, a daily decrease of 549 tons; LME copper stocks were 231,200 tonnes, down 2,800 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2110 contract 75709, -3992, short positions 80928, -2648, net positions -5219, -1344, long and short are reduced, net short increases
.
Market research: The US CPI data rose less than expected in August, but inflation has not slowed down enough for the Fed to delay the reduction, and the US dollar index maintained a wide range; Watch for US retail sales data, better than expected will support the dollar index
.
Fundamentals, upstream copper ore imports remained high, domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees continued to rise, and raw material tension continued to ease; And the maintenance of domestic refineries is gradually overturned, and the output shows an increasing trend
.
However, the price spread of refined scrap is declining, and Malaysia may raise the import standard of scrap copper, or aggravate the tension of scrap copper, increasing the demand for refined copper substitution; Recently, domestic and foreign inventories have shown a downward trend, and there is support
below copper prices.
