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On Thursday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and rebounded, with the highest 67210 yuan / ton and the lowest 66310 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 66850 yuan / ton, down 0.
07% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper rebounded slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 8980.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
57%
per day.
Market focus: (1) Fed March meeting minutes, the US economy is still far from achieving the goal
of a longer cycle.
Most Fed officials believe inflation risks are broadly balanced
.
(2) US President Joe Biden: The infrastructure plan will "certainly" be adjusted
.
Inaction on infrastructure issues cannot be allowed to be allowed
.
(3) From January to February, Chile's national copper industry fell by 2.
8% year-on-year to 882,700 tons; BHP Billiton's Escondidaos copper mine and Pelambres copper mine production fell by 14.
9% and 11.
8% respectively; Chile's Codelco production rose 10.
7% to 264,800 mt
.
Spot analysis: On April 8, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 66280-66500 yuan / ton, the average price was 66390 yuan / ton, down 510 yuan / ton
daily.
The cargo holder ships at a high price, and the downstream purchases on demand, and the overall transaction is
acceptable.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 115089 tons on Thursday, down 601 tons per day; On April 7, LME copper stocks stood at 150325 tonnes, up 6,900 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract are 71813 lots, daily decrease of 3954 lots, short positions of 80392 lots, daily decrease of 2324 lots, net short positions of 6579 lots, daily increase of 1630 lots, long and short are reduced, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2105 opened low and rebounded
on April 8.
The Fed pledged to continue providing monetary policy support until the U.
S.
economic recovery is more solid, and the dollar index retreated
, compounded by strong employment data, rising risk sentiment.
Global copper smelting activity fell to its lowest level in at least five years in March, compounded by the recent closure of borders due to the epidemic, tightening domestic copper supply and continued downward revisions in processing fees
, which put pressure on smelter production.
At present, downstream demand is still weak, and domestic copper inventories have not yet entered a downward channel, but the domestic demand season is still expected, and copper prices continue to adjust.
Technically, the mainstream long position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2105 contract is large, focusing on the 40-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.