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Internal and external trends: LME copper came under pressure on Monday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6130.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
11%
on a daily basis.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and rebounded, with the highest of 49010 yuan / ton, the lowest of 48560 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 48760 yuan / ton, down 0.
29% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 85974 lots, an increase of 4201 lots per day; The position was 112,800 lots, an increase of 5,294 lots
per day.
The basis was expanded to -30 yuan/ton; The price spread of Shanghai copper widened to -110 yuan / ton
in 2002-2003.
Market focus: (1) The US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 47.
2 in December, less than the expected 49, which was the lowest
since June 2009.
(2) Iran announced that it would no longer abide by any restrictions
of the 2015 JCPOA.
Spot analysis: On January 6, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 48700-48760 yuan / ton, the average price was 48730 yuan / ton, down 205 yuan / ton
per day.
Intraday market fell and pullback, some downstream continued to buy on the dip after the concentrated receipt on Friday, the market transaction continued to increase significantly compared with last week's activity, trading enthusiasm increased, before delivery will continue to push up the water, the short-term target good copper station is more than 100 yuan of premium, the market eliminates the source
of discounted goods.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 66,530 tons on Monday, a daily increase of 3,317 tons, an increase of 7 consecutive days; On January 3, LME copper stocks were 144525 tons, down 150 tons per day, and fell for 28 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 3, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 141317 tons, a weekly increase of 17,670 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract are 75459 lots, a daily increase of 3827 lots, short positions are 81198 lots, a daily increase of 5203 lots, a net short position of 5739 lots, a daily increase of 1376 lots, long and short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On January 6, the main force of Shanghai copper 2003 opened low and rebounded
.
U.
S.
economic data performed less than expected, manufacturing activity fell the most in more than a decade in December, the dollar index came under pressure, while the supply of upstream copper mines was tight, copper TC prices were at a low level, and the People's Bank of China lowered the RRR, which strengthened copper prices, but the downward pressure on the global economy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heated up risk aversion in the market, coupled with the increase in domestic refined copper production at the end of the year, downstream demand turned weak, putting pressure
on copper prices 。 In terms of spot, the intraday market fell and pulled, some downstream continued to buy on the dip after the concentrated receipt last Friday, the market transaction activity continued to increase significantly compared with last week, the enthusiasm for trading increased, and the water
will continue to rise before delivery.
Technically, the main force of Shanghai copper 2003 contract daily MACD green column increment, pay attention to the support below 48500 position, is expected to adjust short-term support
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2003 contract can sell high and low in the range of 48600-48900 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.
