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On Monday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and fluctuated, with the highest 68110 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 66860 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 67450 yuan / ton, down 0.
74% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper opened high, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 9150 US dollars / ton, up 1.
67%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) Democrats in the United States, who narrowly control the House of Representatives, voted to approve a new round of $1.
9 trillion economic rescue plan, which aims to provide financial support
to American families and businesses affected by the new crown epidemic.
(2) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50.
9 in February 2021, although it was in expansion territory for the tenth consecutive month, but it has fallen for three consecutive months to the lowest value
since June 2020.
(3) On February 26, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 544,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 04,000 tons, a continuous decline of 5 weeks; during the same period, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 36.
7 US dollars / dry ton, a weekly decrease of 1.
8 US dollars / dry ton, once again refreshing the lowest since
June 2012.
Spot analysis: On March 1, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 67340-67780 yuan / ton, the average price was 67560 yuan / ton, and the daily decline was 835 yuan / ton
.
The discount narrowed, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement picked up slightly, but the transaction was still difficult
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 69,961 tons, an increase of 4,216 tons per day; On 26 February, LME copper stocks stood at 76,225 tonnes, down 2,350 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of February 26, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 147958 tons, a weekly increase of 35,170 tons, an increase of four consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract are 77167 lots, minus 3323 lots, short positions are 82553 lots, daily minus 7577 lots, net short positions are 5386 lots, daily minus 4254 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2104 opened low on March 1
.
The US $1.
9 trillion stimulus package ushered in progress, but the recent US economic recovery and rising inflation expectations boosted a sharp recovery in the US dollar index, and the decline in China's PMI data fell month-on-month, which dampened
risk sentiment.
The supply of domestic copper mines in the upstream maintained a tight pattern, and the TC of copper processing fees continued to decrease, resulting in high smelting costs; At present, foreign copper inventories remain at a historically low level, of which domestic inventories are significantly lower than the same period of previous years; With the resumption of work by downstream companies after the Spring Festival and the expectation of overseas demand recovery, copper prices are expected to remain high
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract is large, and the daily KDJ high dead cross, is expected to short-term shock pullback
.