The main force of Shanghai copper opened low and continued to fall, and the short-term shock was weak

Market focus: (1) The number of new infections in Germany and South Korea has increased, and the market is worried that the economic restart too quickly will lead to a new wave of epidemics
.
(2) Chile's National Mining Association said that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the global economy, which hit copper demand hard, the copper market is expected to have an excess supply of 200,000 tons
this year.

Spot analysis: On May 1, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 43530-43630 yuan / ton, the average price was 43580 yuan / ton, down 550 yuan / ton
daily.
The overall morning market is difficult to say that it is difficult to trade, and soon the market is fully discounted and the performance is expanding all the way, speculators favor low-priced sources, bargain buying is acceptable, market activity has increased significantly compared with the previous day, and the willingness to receive goods has increased
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 64,548 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 1,605 tons per day; On May 11, LME copper stocks were 241675 tons, a daily decrease of 2,025 tons, a 12-day
decline.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2006 contracts are 77677 lots, a daily increase of 1480 lots, short positions are 82333 lots, a daily decrease of 1523 lots, a net short position of 4656 lots, a daily decrease of 3003 lots, more increase and short, and a decrease
in net space.

Market research and judgment: On May 12, Shanghai copper 2006 opened low and continued to fall
.
The US non-farm payrolls data performed poorly, but slightly below market expectations, and the impact of the global epidemic is expected to weaken; At the same time, the possibility of negative interest rates at the Federal Reserve has weighed on the dollar index
.
At present, the price of upstream copper mine TC has fallen to the same level as the record low set last year, the cost of smelting has further risen, coupled with the improvement of downstream demand, and the domestic Shanghai copper inventory continues to deteriorate, which makes the upward momentum of copper prices enhanced; However, it should be noted that the decline in overseas export orders affected by the epidemic has limited the rebound of copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the willingness to speculate in trade has decreased, the downstream fear of heights, and the state of oversupply has highlighted the state of oversupply, so that the spot premium may quickly slide into a discount pattern
before this week's delivery.
Technically, the main 2006 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai copper is dead, and the mainstream position increases and decreases more, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.