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On Thursday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper opened high, with the highest 57950 yuan / ton and the lowest 57230 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 57820 yuan / ton, up 1.
44% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 7846.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
02%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 174,000 in January, and it is expected to increase by 49,000, compared with a decrease of 78,000
in the previous value.
(2) The US non-manufacturing activity index rose to 58.
7 in January, the highest reading since February 2019, and the index above 50 indicates an expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than
two-thirds of U.
S.
economic activity.
Spot analysis: On February 4, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 57680-57950 yuan / ton, with an average price of 57815 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 635 yuan / ton
.
Intraday holders raised prices, some bargain-hunting purchases, and weak downstream consumption inhibited transaction performance
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 21,791 tons on Thursday, an increase of 2,604 tons per day; On 3 February, LME copper stocks stood at 75,000 tonnes, up 775 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2103 contract top 20 long positions 62590 lots, daily minus 3706 lots, short positions 68291 lots, daily minus 4746 lots, net short positions 5701 lots, daily minus 1040 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2103 opened high and went
high on February 4.
The US dollar rose
on the US ADP payrolls in January significantly better than expected, while the non-manufacturing PMI also recorded a substantial increase, with a strong recovery in employment and the economy.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; At present, domestic copper stocks continue to decline, at a historical low, coupled with Chilean ports encountered wind and waves and exports are blocked, it is expected that the impact on future market supply will gradually appear
.
However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has led to a significant increase in imports, abundant raw materials for smelters, and the end of the year downstream stocking is nearing the end, demand has weakened, and copper prices have limited
upward momentum.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2103 contract daily MACD indicator is downward, focusing on the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected to adjust
the short-term low.
