The main force of Shanghai copper opened high and went high, and the market transaction was weak

Market focus: (1) US retail sales rose 5.
3% month-on-month in January, with significant growth across all major categories, down 1% in the previous month and up 1.
1%
expected.
(2) U.
S.
manufacturing output rose 1% month-on-month in January, 0.
9% in December and 0.
7% expected, a better-than-expected increase and a fourth consecutive month of gain
.
(3) WBMS data, the global copper market supply shortage from January to December 2020 was 1.
391 million tons, and from January to November 1.
203 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On February 18, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 62470-62900 yuan / ton, the average price of 62685 yuan / ton, daily increase of 2480 yuan / ton
.
The holiday atmosphere is still strong, a small number of shipments are made, consumption has not seen a significant increase, and transactions are weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 37,839 tons on Thursday, an increase of 2,073 tons per day; On 17 February, LME copper stocks stood at 76,175 tonnes, up 2,450 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract are 73330 lots, with a daily increase of 4026 lots, short positions are 82331 lots, a daily increase of 8176 lots, net short positions are 9001 lots, a daily increase of 4150 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2104 opened high and went
high on February 18.
Massive fiscal stimulus in the United States, coupled with vaccination measures to improve the epidemic, raised optimism about economic recovery, but also pushed the dollar index back up
.
The supply of domestic copper mines in the upstream maintained a tight pattern, and the TC of copper processing fees continued to decrease, resulting in high smelting costs; At present, domestic and foreign copper inventories remain at a low level, of which domestic inventories are at a new low in nearly a decade, and the accumulation in the first quarter is significantly less than in previous years; With the gradual development of China's economic activities after the holiday, downstream new energy and other industries still have optimistic expectations, which is expected to support copper prices to further rise
.
Technically, the increase in holdings of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract rose sharply, and the increase in the daily MACD red bar is expected to continue to be strong in the short term
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long near 63,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 62,500 yuan / ton
.