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On February 12, LME copper opened high and fell back on Wednesday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 5738.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
24%
per day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and fell, with the highest 45730 yuan / ton and the lowest 45490 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 45580 yuan / ton, unchanged from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 29553 lots, and the daily decrease was 4862 lots; The position was 111420 lots, an increase of 726 lots
per day.
The basis was expanded to -190 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper widened to -130 yuan / ton
in 2003-2004.
Market focus: (1) Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the peak of the new coronavirus epidemic is expected to appear in mid-to-late February and may end
before April.
(2) UK GDP in the fourth quarter was flat y/y from the third quarter, in line with expectations, and the rebound in December was more optimistic
than expected after a surprisingly negative monthly growth in November.
(3) SMM data, the operating rate of copper cable in January was 53.
95%, down 14.
9 percentage points year-on-year, and the operating rate is expected to be 29.
43% in February, down 17.
75 percentage points
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On February 12, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 45360-45420 yuan / ton, with an average price of 45390 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 30 yuan / ton
.
Shippers continue to increase, and there is no continued amplification of discount and rapid exchange as in the previous day, but there are enterprises with the willingness to receive goods, but most of them are the source of warehouse receipts, or the quotation of warehouse receipts can be higher, and there is almost no buying for downstream consumption
.
As delivery approaches, deliverable sources and those with warehouse receipts are preferred, and speculators may make a little fuss
in delivery.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 101324 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 1650 tons per day, an increase of 10 consecutive days; On February 11, LME copper stocks were 170,000 tons, down 1,750 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract were 72526 lots, with a daily increase of 222 lots, short positions of 84339 lots, a daily increase of 1204 lots, a net short position of 11813 lots, a daily increase of 982 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On February 12, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high and fell
in 2003.
The epidemic situation is generally on a downward trend, and Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the epidemic is expected to end in April, and market concerns have eased; Britain's fourth-quarter GDP was stronger than expected, the ECB president's speech eased fears that interest rates might be cut, and the dollar index came under pressure, supporting copper prices
.
However, at present, affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work of downstream copper enterprises has been postponed, and the operating rate in February is expected to decline to 29.
43%, which is not conducive to copper demand; Coupled with the growth trend of domestic Shanghai copper inventories, the upward momentum of copper prices has weakened
.
In terms of spot, the number of shippers continues to increase, and there is no continued enlargement of discount and urgent exchange as in the previous day, but there are enterprises with the willingness to receive goods, but most of them are the source of warehouse receipts, or the quotation of warehouse receipts can be higher, and there is almost no buying for downstream consumption
.
Technically, the main daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai copper is golden, focusing on the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and is expected to adjust short-term shocks
.
