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LME copper opened higher on Friday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was quoted at $6297 / ton, up 0.
45%
on a daily basis.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and fell, with the highest 49550 yuan / ton, the lowest 49130 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 49250 yuan / ton, up 0.
10% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 77143 lots, an increase of 24693 lots per day; The position was 140,600 lots, a daily decrease of 1,297 lots
.
The basis narrowed to -330 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2002-2003 widened to -140 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) In 2019, China's GDP exceeded RMB 990865 00 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.
1%.
(2) U.
S.
jobless claims fell to 204,000 last week, 216,000 expected, and 214,000
in the previous month.
(3) Fitch Solutions said Chile's copper production is expected to increase slightly by 0.
5% to 5.
89 million mt
in 2020, despite the decline in production at Antofagasta's Centinela mine.
Spot analysis: On January 17, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 48860-48980 yuan / ton, the average price was 48920 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
In the "small year" of the day, the market has seen the first signs of the festival, the market has not appeared in the previous day's large number of dumping market conditions, the Spring Festival is coming, next week market participation will be greatly reduced, there are few downstream receivers, traders will gradually fade out of the market to leave, the willingness to cash will be significantly reduced, the number of quotations is getting fewer and fewer, and the spot discount will also be significantly narrowed
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 70,576 tons on Friday, a daily decrease of 148 tons; On January 16, LME copper stocks were 126775 tons, down 1,275 tons per day, down 37 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 17, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 134812 tons, a weekly increase of 1,067 tons
.
Main positions: Shanghai copper main 2003 contract top 20 long positions 95998 lots, daily decrease of 867 lots, short positions of 102067 lots, daily increase of 1169 lots, net short positions of 6069 lots, daily increase of 2036 lots, more short increase, net space increase
.
Market research and judgment: On January 17, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high and fell
in 2003.
China's 2019 GDP year-on-year growth rate is in line with expectations, the US labor market is still strong, helping to stabilize market confidence, while Chilean copper mine production is expected to increase this year is limited, copper mine supply is expected to continue, copper prices are supported, but the recent Shanghai copper inventory has a recovery trend, coupled with the renminbi continues to rise, the import profit window opened slightly, not conducive to inventory decomposition, while downstream demand at the end of the year gradually weakened, copper prices upward weak
。 In terms of spot, the "small year" of the day, the market has seen the first signs of the festival, the market has not appeared in the previous day's large number of dumping market conditions, the Spring Festival is approaching, next week market participation will be greatly reduced, there are few downstream receivers
.
Technically, the main force of Shanghai copper 2003 contract daily MACD green column contraction, pay attention to the 49000 position support, is expected to be strong
short-term volatility.
