The main force of Shanghai copper is under pressure to the downside, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak

Market focus: Negotiations between the EU and the UK are close to reaching a draft
Brexit agreement.
The IMF lowered world economic growth to 3% in 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.
2%.

The operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in September was 78.
06%, up 6.
11 percentage points year-on-year and 5.
02 percentage points
month-on-month.
According to the mid-term analysis, automobile production and sales in September increased by 11% and 16% month-on-month, respectively, and decreased by 6.
2% and 5.
2% y/y, respectively.
From January to September, vehicle production and sales decreased by 11.
4% and 10.
3% y/y, respectively, a decrease of 0.
7 percentage points
from January to August.

Spot analysis: On October 16, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 46880-46950 yuan / ton, the average price was 46915 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton
per day.
On the first day after the month change, the holder held a stable quotation at 40-70 yuan / ton of premium, low-priced sources were favored by the market, attracting traders to enter the market to receive goods, the morning market can still reduce prices, transaction activity is still good, especially flat water copper buying is higher, inquiry is obviously more active, but at the beginning of the week imported copper concentrated arrival into the warehouse makes the inventory pressure still there, the transaction is difficult to have substantial changes, downstream on-demand procurement
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 64,399 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 1,472 tons per day; On 15 October, LME copper stocks were 274975 tonnes, down 2,375 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1912 contract are 69541 lots, an increase of 954 lots per day, short positions are 85415 lots, a daily increase of 173 lots, a net short position of 15874 lots, a daily decrease of 781 lots, long and short are increased, and the net space is reduced
.

On October 16, the main force of Shanghai copper 1912 came under pressure to the downside
.
Optimistic news from Brexit, the pound rose and the dollar came under pressure, while the recent upstream copper mines were affected by strikes and protests, copper mine supply concerns increased, copper prices have stabilized overall, but the IMF once again lowered the global GDP growth rate this year, market pessimism has risen, and copper inventories have rebounded, indicating a lack of significant improvement in downstream demand, increasing pressure on copper prices
.
In terms of spot, low-priced sources have been favored by the market, attracting traders to enter the market to receive goods, and the transaction activity is still good, but the concentrated arrival of imported copper at the beginning of the week makes the inventory pressure still there, and it is difficult to make substantial changes in the transaction for the time being, and the downstream purchases
on demand.
Technically, the main 1912 contract of Shanghai copper fell back below the moving average group, and the daily MACD green column increased, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.