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On Wednesday, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai copper rebounded, with the highest 53,060 yuan / ton and the lowest 52,300 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 53,000 yuan / ton, up 0.
17% from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $7116.
5 / ton, up 0.
59%
per day.
Market focus: (1) U.
S.
retail sales rose 0.
3% month-on-month in October, the lowest increase in six months, and the growth rate last month was revised down 0.
3 percentage points to 1.
6%.
(2) EU and Brexit negotiators begin a last-ditch effort to avoid a disorderly Brexit at the end of December
.
(3) China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in October rose 5.
4% year-on-year to 914,000 tons, only slightly below the record high of 930,000 tons
set in December.
Spot analysis: On November 18, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 52650-52770 yuan / ton, with an average price of 52710 yuan / ton, a daily drop of 520 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders were willing to sell at a high price, and the low-priced source of goods was transacted, and the downstream stopped and watched
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 48,885 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 201 tons; On November 17, LME copper stocks were 161,700 tons, down 1,325 tons per day, down for 9 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2101 contract are 74910 lots, minus 201 lots per day, short positions are 69933 lots, daily increase of 628 lots, net long positions are 4977 lots, daily decrease of 829 lots, more short increases, net more decreases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2101 rebounded
on November 18.
The news of the new crown vaccine has warmed up the market risk sentiment, coupled with the improvement of the Brexit negotiations, which has kept the US index under pressure; The supply of upstream copper mines remained tight, copper processing fees TC remained low, and smelter production costs continued to be high; The recent improvement in downstream demand in the copper market has driven the continuous dematerialization of inventories, and the current Shanghai copper inventory is close to the low level in June, and copper prices are strong
.
However, the global pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, and the economic outlook remains risky; At the same time, domestic smelting production continued to rise, forming a resistance
to copper prices.
Technically, the trading volume of the Shanghai copper 2101 contract closed in the lower shadow, and there was support below 52400, which is expected to be strong in the short term
.
