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LME copper fluctuated more on Tuesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $5989.
0 / ton, up 0.
40%
on a daily basis.
The main 1908 contract of Shanghai copper also fluctuated higher, with the highest 47130 yuan / ton and the lowest 46730 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 47090 yuan / ton, up 0.
73% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 151,500 lots, an increase of 13,244 lots per day, and the position was 245,000 lots, a decrease of 36 lots
per day.
The basis was reduced to -95 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai copper in 1908-1909 narrowed to -50 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The US Dallas Fed business activity index in June released a value of -12.
1, expected 1, the previous value of -5.
3, fell to a three-year low, the lowest level
since 2016.
(2) Morgan Stanley lowered its global copper demand growth forecast to 0.
7%, including 1% in China and 0.
4% outside China, and lowered its price forecast for 2019 by 7% to $
6,228 per tonne.
(3) According to news, the strike at the Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile threatens to cost the market 10,000 tons of supply, and the strike has lasted for 11 days and there is no sign of
reaching an agreement.
Spot analysis: On June 25, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 46840-47070 yuan / ton, and the average price was 120 yuan / ton
higher than the previous trading day.
SMM reported that on the last day of today's long order delivery, the market is still dominated by the demand for the current month's invoice supply, the transaction continues to show a stalemate and tug-of-war, the monthly invoice source transaction has improved slightly, and the downstream still maintains rigid demand
.
The holder's quotation is stable, the willingness to raise the price remains unchanged, and the actual transaction market conditions are still deadlocked; Tomorrow's spot premium will be significantly loosened, and the price difference between the current month's invoice and the next month's invoice will not narrow.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 60,802 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 1,304 tons; On June 24, LME copper stocks were 244725 tonnes, down 1,325 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1908 contract were 69231 lots, an increase of 19 lots, short positions were 91983 lots, an increase of 1435 lots, net short positions were 22752 lots, a daily increase of 1416 lots, long and short increased, and net space increased
.
On June 25, the main 1908 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated higher
.
U.
S.
economic data indicators performed poorly, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continued to weigh on U.
S.
indexes, while Chile's copper mine strike has lasted for 11 days and copper processing fees have shown a downward trend, increasing copper mine supply concerns and supporting
futures prices.
In terms of spot, trading continued to show deadlock, the invoice source transaction in the month improved slightly, the downstream still maintained rigid demand, the holder's quotation was stable, the willingness to raise the price remained unchanged, and the actual transaction market situation was still
deadlocked.
Technically, the main 1908 contract of Shanghai copper re-stood on the 30-day moving average, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator grew, and it is expected that there will be more
short-term volatility.
