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On Thursday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and fell, with the highest 71100 yuan / ton and the lowest 69610 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 70150 yuan / ton, down 1.
68% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper opened high and fell, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 9535 yuan / ton, up 0.
57%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The Fed statement said it would launch a tapering program later in November, reducing the monthly asset purchase size by $15 billion; But patience is likely to be maintained when it comes to raising rates
.
(2) The NDRC stated that it will continue to crack down on illegal coal storage and strengthen the supervision
of long-term coal flow.
(3) Chile's Codelco copper production fell 16% year-on-year to 133,800 tons in September 2021, and BHP Billiton's world's largest copper mine, Escondida, fell 12.
2% year-on-year to 82,600 tons
, according to the Chilean Copper Association.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 71080-71440 yuan / ton, the average price is 71260 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 380 yuan / ton
.
The holder adjusts the price and ships the goods, the receiver buys at a low price on demand, the transaction is quiet, and the overall transaction is flat
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in the day was 10,032 tons, a daily decrease of 350 tons; LME copper stocks were 123,400 tonnes, down 3,075 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2112 contract 90137, -3428, short positions 108940, -556, net positions -18803, -2872, long and short decreased, net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: the Fed reduced the scale of bond purchases to November, but still adhered to the theory of inflation transitory, and the US dollar index fluctuated; The NDRC said it was strictly forbidden to fabricate and spread coal-related misinformation, and market caution increased
.
Fundamentals, upstream Chile Codelco and Escondida production in September both fell year-on-year, coupled with the recent sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, refinery production pressure increased
.
At present, downstream demand is weak, but some refined copper has begun to be exported, and domestic inventories have declined; While foreign countries still maintain destocking, LME copper spot premium remains high, and copper prices are expected to run
strongly.
Technically, the Shanghai Copper 2112 contract has a shadow black line below and support below
.
