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On Tuesday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai copper fell under pressure, with the highest 66620 yuan / ton and the lowest 65860 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 65880 yuan / ton, down 0.
69% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper continued to fall, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $8816 / ton, down 0.
69%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) US President Joe Biden is expected to announce his large-scale infrastructure plan
on Wednesday local time.
The plan was initially thought to be $3 trillion in size, but could now reach $4 trillion and include a $3.
5 trillion tax
increase, according to The Washington Post.
(2) According to my nonferrous metals, on March 29, the spot dutiable inventory of electrolytic copper in the Chinese market was 317,400 tons, an increase of 04,500 tons from last Thursday and an increase of 20,000 tons
from last Monday.
(3) On March 29, the spot stock of copper in China's bonded zone was 422,000 tons, an increase of 06,000 tons from last Monday and an increase of 02,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Spot analysis: On March 30, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 66070-66250 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66160 yuan / ton, down 75 yuan / ton
per day.
According to the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Report, the circulation of goods has increased, but the downstream is still dominated by rigid demand, and the activity is not high
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 112731 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 700 tons per day; On March 29, LME copper stocks stood at 132,050 tonnes, up 8,250 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2105 contract are 86567 lots, minus 3969 lots per day, short positions are 94600 lots, daily increase of 800 lots, net short positions are 8033 lots, daily increase of 4769 lots, more short increases, net short increases
.
Market research and judgment: On March 30, Shanghai copper 2105 volatility rose
slightly.
US President Joe Biden is expected to unveil a large-scale infrastructure plan to support the economic recovery, and the dollar index continues to be strong due to concerns about a margin default by a hedge fund
.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to decline, and processing fee TC continued to decline, resulting in high smelting costs; However, the recent risk of copper strikes in Chile has been lifted, the Peruvian Transport Association strike has ended, copper mine supply is expected to gradually recover, and the CSPT team will soon finalize the TC floor price
in the second quarter.
Recently, with the arrival of the consumption season, domestic copper inventories have shown signs of inflection, but the future market still needs to pay attention to the extent of
destocking.
Copper prices are not enough to move up
.
Technically, the mainstream positions of the Shanghai Copper 2105 contract increased and decreased more, continuing the triangle convergence, and it is expected that the short-term range will be adjusted
.
