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On Thursday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai copper fell sharply, with the highest 70,060 yuan / ton and the lowest 68,800 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 68,910 yuan / ton, down 1.
75% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper continued to be weak, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9340/ton, down 0.
25%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) ECB Governing Council Schnabel: Inflation will take longer than expected, and the ECB must avoid premature tightening
.
Inflation will decline
significantly in 2022.
The conditions for a rate hike are unlikely to materialize
in 2022.
(2) According to the Japan Wire and Cable Manufacturers Association, Japan's copper cable sales in October this year fell 2.
7% year-on-year to 55,100 tons
.
(3) According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's electrolytic copper production in October was 855,000 tons, down 0.
3%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 70100-70550 yuan / ton, the average price is 70325 yuan / ton, down 645 yuan / ton
daily.
The holder sells at a high price, the quotation is high, the receiver is afraid of the heights to stop and watch, the transaction of low-priced goods is better, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 17,709 tons, a daily decrease of 675 tons; On the 17th, LME copper stocks were 99,450 tons, an increase of 5,525 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2112 contract 75326, -1553, short positions 87255, -6023, net positions -11929, +4470, long and short reduction, net space reduction
.
Market research and judgment: US inflation pressure heats up, Fed officials release hawkish signals, the dollar index continues to rise; Domestic coal supply and demand continued to improve, and coal prices weakened, dragging down non-ferrous metal prices
.
Fundamentally, the growth of upstream copper processing fees has slowed down, and the tight supply of cold materials still exists, coupled with the sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, the pressure on refinery production has increased, and the output of refined copper in the future market is expected to remain limited
.
Copper prices have fallen recently, downstream purchasing willingness has improved, and domestic inventories have fallen slightly; However, foreign explicit inventories have increased, the risk of running positions has decreased, and the LME copper spot premium has been significantly lowered recently, and copper prices are expected to run
weakly.
