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LME copper fluctuated strongly on Monday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was at $6289 / ton, up 0.
32%
on a daily basis.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai copper fell and fluctuated, with the highest 49330 yuan / ton and the lowest 48970 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 49100 yuan / ton, down 0.
30% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 65995 lots, and the daily decrease was 11148 lots; The position was 138,500 lots, a daily decrease of 2,101 lots
.
The basis was expanded to -180 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2002-2003 widened to -50 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The annualized total of housing starts in the United States rose to 1.
608 million in December, the highest level since December 2006, and reached a monthly rate of 16.
9%, the largest monthly increase since 2016
.
Spot analysis: On January 20, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 48800-48900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 48920 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton
per day.
SMM reported that the market has clearly entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, participation has dropped significantly, quotations are scarce, quotations are divergent, the market is more wait-and-see, and there are almost no transactions
.
Individual holders quoted a small number of low prices to attract some buyers from traders, and there was little downstream
supplementation.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 70,277 tons, a daily decrease of 299 tons; On January 17, LME copper stocks were 125,250 tons, down 1,525 tons per day, down 38 consecutive days
.
In the week ended January 17, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 134812 tons, a weekly increase of 1,067 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract were 94598 lots, minus 1400 lots per day, short positions were 99977 lots, minus 2090 lots per day, net short positions were 5379 lots, daily minus 690 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On January 20, the main force of Shanghai copper fell in 2003
.
China's 2019 GDP year-on-year growth rate is in line with expectations, helping to stabilize market confidence, while Chile's copper mine production is expected to increase this year, copper mine supply is expected to continue, coupled with the closure of the copper import profit window, conducive to the dematerialization of domestic inventories, the support for copper prices is strengthened, but the strong US labor market has sharply pushed the dollar index higher, and the market is worried about follow-up implementation and next negotiations, coupled with the gradual weakening of downstream demand at the end of the year, putting pressure
on copper prices 。 In terms of spot, the market has clearly entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the participation has dropped significantly, with individual holders quoting a small number of low prices to attract some buyers from traders, and there is little downstream
supplementation.
Technically, Shanghai copper main 2003 contract daily KDJ dead cross signs, pay attention to the support below the 48700 position, is expected to recover
from the short-term low.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2003 contract can be long around 48900 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 48700 yuan / ton
.
