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Internal and external trends: LME copper fell on Wednesday, as of 16.
30 Beijing time, 3-month London copper reported 5834.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
40%
on a daily basis.
The main 2001 contract of Shanghai copper fell and fluctuated, with the highest 47250 yuan / ton, the lowest 47040 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 47080 yuan / ton, down 0.
47% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 93878 lots, an increase of 5404 lots per day; The position was 197,100 lots, a daily decrease of 6,252 lots
.
The basis was expanded to 70 yuan/ton; The price spread of Shanghai copper in 2001-2002 widened to -60 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.
1, remaining below the boom-bust line for the fourth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.
4 and last month's 48.
3
.
(2) Trump said he would resume tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Brazil and Argentina and urged the Federal Reserve to take action to prevent some countries from taking advantage
of the U.
S.
economically through currency devaluation.
(3) Chile's national copper industry will reduce investment by 8 billion US dollars
in the next 10 years.
Spot analysis: On December 3, spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 47130-47170 yuan / ton, the average price of 47150 yuan / ton, down 195 yuan / ton
daily.
The morning trading is acceptable, but when entering the second trading session, it is already difficult to find a low-priced source, the downstream maintains rigid demand, the market falls slightly and pulls back, and the market trading enthusiasm improves, but it is still led by traders to pull up the water, and the short-term premium will still maintain a steady upward trend
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 64,603 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 270 tons; On December 2, LME copper stocks were 208525 tons, down 100 tons per day, down for seven consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2001 contract are 60012 lots, minus 1196 lots per day, 75885 short positions, 3419 lots per day, net short positions are 15873 lots, daily minus 2223 lots, long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On December 3, the main force of Shanghai copper fell in 2001
.
US President Trump said that he will resume steel and aluminum tariffs, trade unilateralism prevailed, which heated up market risk aversion, coupled with the lack of substantive news in Sino-US trade negotiations, put pressure on copper prices, but the US economic data was less than expected, putting pressure on the US dollar, coupled with the recent continuous decline in copper inventories, which supported copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the morning trading is acceptable, but when entering the second trading session, it is already difficult to find low-priced sources, the downstream maintains rigid demand, the market falls slightly and pulls back, and the market trading enthusiasm improves, but it is still led by traders to pull up the water
.
Technically, the main 2001 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai copper is dead, and the position is declining, and it is expected to continue to fall
slightly in the short term.
