The main force of Shanghai aluminum rushed high and shocked, and the downstream short-term receiving goods was active

Market focus: (1) In November, the added value of industries above designated size in the country increased by 6.
2% year-on-year; The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,809.
4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.
0%.

(2) The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 52.
5, the previous value and expectations were 52.
6; the Markit services PMI was 52.
2, higher than the previous value of 51.
6 and the expectation of 52
.

Spot analysis: On December 17, spot A00 aluminum reported 14100-14140 yuan / ton, the average price was 14120 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton
per day.
In addition to the decline in inventory of arrival reduction, an important reason for the tight short-term spot circulation is that it is also due to the near end of the year, traders' 2019 long orders are about to expire, and the long order volume has not been fully released, so the short-term receipt is extremely positive, although a large household has received goods several times but the actual transaction volume is not much, the market buyers and sellers are
deadlocked.
The downstream maintains on-demand procurement, and the fear of heights is obvious within the day, and the amount of goods received is not much
in the case of traders' shipment convergence.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 52,755 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,298 tons; On December 16, LME aluminum stocks were 1403075 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons per day, an increase of 6 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 80012 lots, a daily increase of 1595 lots, short positions were 91124 lots, a daily increase of 6367 lots, net short positions were 11112 lots, a daily increase of 4772 lots, long and short increased, net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On December 17, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 rushed high and
shocked.
China's November industrial and retail sales data was better than expected, the US PMI data for December was also strong, market confidence was boosted, while domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to be low, inventories continued to deteriorate, and downstream demand showed marginal improvement, aluminum rod inventories were digested, and aluminum price support was strengthened, but Lun aluminum stocks continued to increase, now rising to a new high for the year, and upstream alumina production remained high, inventory accumulation prices under pressure, forming some pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, in addition to the decrease in inventory of arrivals, but also because near the end of the year, traders' 2019 long orders are about to expire, and the number of long orders has not yet been fully shipped, so the short-term receipt is extremely positive, and the downstream maintains on-demand procurement
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract daily MACD red column growth of Shanghai aluminum, the increase of mainstream bulls is large, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.