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Internal and external trends: LME aluminum volatility rose slightly on Thursday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1745 / ton, up 0.
06%
per day.
The main 2001 contract of Shanghai aluminum ran high and volatile, with the highest 13875 yuan / ton and the lowest 13780 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 13865 yuan / ton, up 0.
62% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 141,100 lots, an increase of 75,712 lots per day, and the position was 215,400 lots, a daily decrease of 14,966 lots
.
The basis was expanded to 225 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum from 1912 to 2001 remained at 100 yuan / ton
.
Market Focus: Fed minutes show that Fed officials generally believe they may not need to cut rates
again unless economic conditions change significantly.
From January to September 2019, the global primary aluminum market had a supply shortage of 530,000 tons, a gap of 262,000 tons from January to August, and a supply shortage of 631,000 tons in 2018
.
Spot analysis: On November 21, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14070-14110 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14090 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 110 yuan / ton
.
In the morning, the spot quotation in the Shanghai and Wuxi markets rose by more than 100 yuan, and the holders shipped very positively, but the actual transaction price fell after the significant increase in shipments, and with the fall in spot prices, the trading between the two sides was slightly deadlocked, and the quotation of Hangzhou holders was relatively firm, and did not lower the price due to the light market transaction, and the downstream fear of heights was more obvious
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 84,840 tons on Thursday, down 7,249 tons per day; On November 20, LME aluminum inventory was 1169525 tons, an increase of 10,550 tons per day, an increase of 7 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract were 67775 lots, minus 3210 lots per day, short positions were 76707 lots, daily minus 6136 lots, net short positions were 8932 lots, daily minus 2926 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
On November 21, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2001 rushed high and oscillated
.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but did not show more hawkish signals, the dollar rushed back down, while the WBMS report showed that the supply gap in the aluminum market from January to September widened significantly, and the current electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, which supported aluminum prices, but Sino-US trade still lacked substantive news, market sentiment was cautious, and electrolytic aluminum production expectations existed, making aluminum prices weaker
。 In terms of spot, the spot quotation in the morning market rose by more than 100 yuan, and the shippers shipped very positively, but the actual transaction price fell after the significant increase in shippers, and the trading between the two sides was slightly deadlocked, and the downstream fear of heights was more obvious
.
Technically, the main 2001 contract daily MACD indicator golden cross, mainstream short positions are significantly reduced, and it is expected to continue to rise
slightly in the short term.
