The main force of Shanghai aluminum rushed high and oscillated and expected to adjust the short-term high

Market focus: (1) Some members of the US Senate from both parties proposed a $908 billion economic stimulus package, but there is still high uncertainty
about whether it can be passed.
(2) According to the latest OECD report, the global economy is forecast to grow by 4.
2% in 2021, down from 5% expected in September, and 3.
7% in 2022, down from 4%
expected in September.

Spot analysis: On December 2, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17060-17100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17080 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 100 yuan / ton
.
Holders actively ship, middlemen are weak in procurement, downstream demand is not good, and transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 86,151 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 551 tons, down 12 consecutive days; On December 1, LME aluminum stocks were 1368125 tons, down 5,900 tons per day, down for 10 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract were 81499 lots, a daily increase of 2141 lots, short positions 105101 lots, a daily increase of 3159 lots, a net short position of 23602 lots, a daily increase of 1018 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On December 2, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2101 rushed high and oscillated
.
The US dollar index continued to be weak as the market expected a new stimulus package to
be launched amid the continued troubled epidemic in the United States.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, coupled with the release of primary aluminum production capacity is not as expected, and the impact of environmental protection production restrictions in the heating season may also increase, domestic spot and Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are showing a downward trend, supporting aluminum prices to continue to be strong
.
However, the price of alumina continues to weaken, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum production is high, which stimulates the production capacity in the medium and long term; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices may weaken.

Technically, the main 2101 contract contraction increase of Shanghai aluminum continues to rise, and the mainstream short position increase is large, and it is expected to adjust the short-term high
.