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On Thursday, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, with the highest 15,945 yuan / ton and the lowest 15,650 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 15,755 yuan / ton, down 0.
19% from the previous trading day's close; In the external market, LME aluminum opened low, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1990 US dollars / ton, up 0.
00%
per day.
Market focus: (1) Pfizer said that in the final efficacy analysis of the phase 3 trial, the new crown vaccine showed 95% effectiveness
.
(2) Officials from many EU countries questioned some of Britain's current negotiating positions ahead of the EU summit, adding to the uncertainty of the draft Brexit agreement that was expected to be finalized on Friday
.
(3) WBMS reported that the global primary aluminum market had an oversupply of 1.
603 million tons from January to September 2020, expanding
from the excess of 1.
537 million tons from January to August.
(4) As of November 19, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 615,000 tons, unchanged from Monday and maintained the low level
of the year.
Spot analysis: On November 19, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15900-15940 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15920 yuan / ton, up 170 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of goods is still tight, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, the downstream is afraid of heights, and the transaction activity is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 124088 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1696 tons; On November 18, LME aluminum stocks were 1409575 tons, down 7,125 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contracts were 78390 lots, minus 5766 lots per day, short positions were 95357 lots, daily minus 6527 lots, net short positions were 16967 lots, daily minus 761 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On November 19, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2012 rushed back down
.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, domestic spot inventory continued to deteriorate, now close to the low level at the beginning of the year, the tight supply of goods makes the market price willingness is higher, aluminum price performance is relatively strong
.
However, the new crown vaccine once again came with good news, easing concerns about the spread of the epidemic, coupled with the regeneration of variables in the Brexit negotiations, the US dollar index rebounded slightly; Alumina prices continue to weaken, and the high profit of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the accelerated launch of aluminum plant production capacity, which will cause resistance
to aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum to reduce the number of long positions, pay attention to the 5-day moving average support, and expect a short-term high adjustment
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 15600-16000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.
