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On Wednesday, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, with the highest 18045 yuan / ton and the lowest 17625 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 17895 yuan / ton, up 0.
87% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fluctuated higher, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2310 / ton, up 0.
24%
per day.
Market focus: (1) US CPI rose 0.
6% month-on-month in March, and was expected to increase by 0.
5%, the highest since July 2020; The March CPI rose 2.
6% year-on-year versus an expected 2.
5% increase, the highest
since August 2018.
(2) Market rumors are that Xinjiang and regional aluminum ingot production is limited, and the overall involves limiting production at the annual level, but it has not yet been confirmed
.
Spot analysis: On April 14, spot A00 aluminum reported 17740-17780 yuan / ton, the average price was 17760 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 290 yuan / ton
.
Cargo holders ship at a high price, receivers wait and see, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and transaction activity declines
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 157672 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 94 tons per day; On April 13, LME stocks were 1841575 tonnes, down 6,025 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2105 contract 121757 lots, a daily decrease of 2976 lots, a short position of 134040 lots, a daily increase of 1693 lots, a net short position of 12283 lots, a daily increase of 4669 lots, a long reduction of short increases, and a net
increase of short.
Market research and judgment: At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in a state of full production, the growth space of the operating rate is limited, and under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, Inner Mongolia limits the production of the aluminum industry, and the supply side is restricted; It is rumored that Xinjiang will also take measures to limit production, but it has not yet been confirmed, and the market wait-and-see attitude
.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have turned into a downward trend, downstream procurement willingness is positive, and the traditional consumption season is gradually emerging, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position greatly, and the shadow line touched a new high in the year, and it is expected that the market volatility will be strong
.
